The post argues that supply chain forecasting often fails because companies focus on tools rather than decisions. Drawing on multinational IBP and S&OP experience, it highlights how over-complex AI-driven systems are frequently adopted before organisations are clear on what they actually need to decide, over what time horizons, and at what level of detail. Clean, reliable data must come before technology, and simpler, iterative forecasting approaches—often piloted or custom-built—can deliver faster, cheaper value than defaulting to large, “safe” vendors. The real objective is not perfect forecast accuracy, but greater execution agility in an increasingly volatile environment.