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BestPractice.Club

Pattern:

 

Test assumptions

Challenging early thinking before options harden and commitments form.

This is where the quality of the eventual decision is most often determined — and where independent peer input is most scarce and most valuable.

Description

If you have named the problem — you have a working hypothesis about what is limiting supply chain capability and what kind of investment might address it — but you have not yet committed to a direction and are actively testing whether your read is correct, this is where the quality of the eventual decision is most often determined.

This stage sits between general orientation and vendor evaluation. You are past the point of wondering whether something needs to change. You are not yet at the point of inviting vendors to present. The work here is resolving what kind of solution architecture is actually appropriate for your situation — before any vendor has had the opportunity to anchor the conversation.

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

Mark Twain

Where teams tend to get stuck

Teams at this stage often move forward with more certainty than is warranted.

Common patterns include treating early hypotheses as settled decisions and moving to solution evaluation before the problem framing has been independently tested; relying on a narrow set of perspectives, particularly those of people who already share the same assumptions; assuming alignment where assumptions actually differ across teams, which only becomes visible when finance, IT, or leadership engage; and skipping the architecture direction question by moving directly from problem awareness to vendor demonstrations without resolving what kind of solution is actually appropriate.

Because progress feels real at this stage, these gaps often go unchallenged until they surface later as resistance, rework, or loss of confidence in the investment case.

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself... and you are the easiest person to fool.

Richard Feynman

What's harder to see from the inside

The assumption most practitioners at this stage are operating on is that the diagnosis is broadly right, that the capability gap has been correctly identified, and the question now is how to address it.

The evidence from comparable decisions suggests that the diagnosis is more often partially right than wrong.

The presenting problem is usually real. What tends to be missing is an honest account of the conditions that produced it... the operating model decisions that were never made, the data foundations that are assumed to be adequate, the organisational appetite for change that has been tested in workshops rather than in working conversations about what the change will actually require. Those gaps are not visible from inside the organisation, because the internal team has adapted to them. They tend to surface only when someone with a genuinely different vantage point asks the questions that internal advocates and vendor representatives do not.

Testing assumptions well means creating the conditions for disconfirmation: actively looking for evidence that the diagnosis is wrong, not just confirmation that it is right. That is harder to do from inside than it sounds, and it is the specific kind of challenge that peer scrutiny from practitioners with no stake in the outcome is best placed to provide.

BPC's outside-in view at this stage comes from practitioners who have tested comparable diagnoses in comparable organisations. Tell us about your context and we can find the most relevant comparisons.

In-person · London ·12 November 2026

Test Your Thinking

A full day for practitioners focusing on how you gain the clarity and build the confidence to commit capital, credibility and organisational energy to a capability investment — and stay confident as the journey unfolds. Peer-led, discussion-first, no pitches.

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Related to this Pattern on this page

Perspectives articles

Why the Questions That Matter Most in a Planning Transformation Don't Get Answered Well From Inside

Three questions decide whether a planning transformation succeeds. All three are routinely answered from inside the organisation, which is structurally one of the least reliable conditions for answering them honestly.
May 13, 2026

Paying for Predictability: Why the Business Case for Supply Chain Investment Keeps Failing

Supply chain leaders know the investment case for resilience and capability. The harder question is why it keeps failing — and what practitioners are doing differently to get it through. Drawing on a BPC online roundtable hosted by James Moffatt of Baringa.
April 23, 2026

Why Supply Chain Leaders Are Often Sceptical of Consultants and Why That Matters for Planning Transformation

Planning transformation projects frequently involve external consultants, yet many supply chain leaders approach these relationships with a degree of scepticism. Drawing on a conversation with former practitioner turned consultant Dale Edwards, this article explores why that scepticism exists and how it reflects the practical realities of planning transformation. It examines the gap between planning theory and operational behaviour, the risks of beginning transformation programmes with technology rather than clearly defined operational problems, and practical ways organisations can evaluate improvements before committing to major change. Rather than criticising consultants, the article argues that a constructive level of scepticism can improve decision-making and lead to more effective collaboration between organisations and external advisors.
March 12, 2026

The Same Leader, Two Very Different Planning Strategies: Why Context Changes Everything

The same planning leader, two very different strategies. This Perspective explores how ownership model, maturity, and constraints reshape what “good” planning looks like — and why copying peers is often a costly mistake.
February 3, 2026

From Insight to Commitment: Knowing When You’re Ready to Move

Even when priorities are clear, organisations often stall because they don’t know what ‘ready’ looks like. This article sets out calm, practical signals of decision readiness: ownership, evidence thresholds, alignment on risk, and the ability to adapt when assumptions change. It also explains why post-event momentum often fades, and how to structure follow-up so it supports decisions without pushing premature sales conversations.
January 23, 2026

Online sessions

Making Sense of the Options Before You Commit to One

Timing: Thu 16 Jul · 15:00 BST · 60 minutes

Focus: Supply chain leaders who are earlier in their planning transformation journey — new in role, new to a capability area, or not yet clear on the specific problem they are trying to solve.

Format: Practitioner-led peer discussion facilitated by BestPractice.Club

In-person meetings

Plenary / panels / enabler sessions

None upcoming.

Capability-focused roundtable discussions

Process & decision intelligence

  • Which processes do you need visibility into right now, and which are you instrumenting because the tooling makes it easy rather than because a decision depends on it?
  • What's the difference between a process insight that changes a decision and one that just confirms what people already suspected?
  • How do you know whether you're ready for AI-guided decision support, or whether that's a later-stage capability being pulled forward by hype?
  • Where has process mining created real change elsewhere, versus producing dashboards checked once and ignored?
November 12, 2026
 · 
Central London, UK
 · 
Autumn 2026 Meeting

A quick note on how to read this

BestPractice.Club is not a consultancy and does not provide advisory services based on full organisational discovery.

What you see here reflects pattern recognition drawn from many years of conversations with supply chain and operations leaders facing real, high-stakes decisions. It is intended to help you orient yourself, clarify your decision position, and understand what often proves useful at similar points — not to provide definitive advice tailored to your specific circumstances.

Any suggestions are indicative, not exhaustive, and are made without full visibility of your organisation, constraints, or risk profile. Decisions remain yours, and should be tested against your own data, context, and governance processes.

If a pattern doesn’t quite fit, that’s normal. They are distilled from many examples from varying contexts. Decisions rarely move in straight lines with teams often revisiting earlier stages as new information emerges. If it would help to talk through your situation and sense-check where you are, you’re welcome to schedule a short conversation.