Introduction
Supply chains built for cost and efficiency are now facing a permanent state of disruption. Trade realignments, energy shocks, and shifting global politics have made volatility structural, not cyclical.
Tim Richardson, Chief Executive Officer at Iter Consulting, has spent over three decades leading and advising operational-excellence programmes across manufacturing, engineering, and industrial supply chains. In this conversation with JP Doggett, he shares why many organisations still struggle to adapt, how resilience must now be designed in rather than bolted on, and why the next era of progress will depend as much on leadership and clarity as on technology.
Q&A
JP Doggett: You shared a graph from the Federal Reserve showing volatility in supply-chain activity. What struck you about that?
Tim Richardson: It really showed how continuous the shocks have been. From trade wars to the pandemic and everything since, there’s been almost no period of stability. Many organisations still operate on the assumption that the world will return to calm global supply chains, but it won’t. Instability is the new normal, and you can’t run supply chains in the way you used to. The goal now is adaptability — structuring the business so it can respond, not hoping things settle down.
Why confidence has eroded
JP: You mentioned that many supply-chain directors seem hesitant to act even when they know change is needed.
Tim: There’s definitely a loss of confidence. People hear constant noise about what technology can do and what the next crisis might be, but they’re unsure what’s real. The result is inertia — “better to wait than make the wrong call.” Part of that comes down to trust. There’s a low level of trust in the market; leaders are wary of being oversold. When confidence and clarity are missing, doing nothing can feel safer than doing something.
Designing for resilience
JP: You’ve said that resilience is the defining issue of our time. What does that mean in practical terms?
Tim: True resilience isn’t about reacting quickly after the fact — it’s about designing flexibility into how the network operates. That means understanding where and how you can move capacity, where you hold redundancy, and how decisions flow. The structure matters as much as the systems.
We’ll see more distributed manufacturing — smaller, regional facilities that can switch between products or markets — but controlled by a more centralised decision engine. I sometimes describe it as distributed factories, central intelligence. That’s the pattern that will let companies rebalance when things change instead of freezing every time there’s a shock.
Thinking before the crisis
JP: During our conversation you used the phrase “measured thinking.” What kind of thinking are organisations not doing enough of?
Tim: Too many are so busy managing the tactical fallout of each disruption that they never step back to think strategically. You have to do some of that analysis when you’re not in crisis — when you still have bandwidth. The companies that cope best are the ones that’ve already asked: What will we do if this happens? What would we need to know to decide quickly?
If you try to transform when your base operations or data are messy, you just create more noise. You need a sound starting point before you attempt major change; otherwise every improvement project becomes firefighting.
AI and the reality check
JP: How do you see AI fitting into this shift toward adaptability?
Tim: AI will absolutely have a role, but it’s not the answer in itself. It’s only a role. The hype cycle is way ahead of the practical capability in most organisations. Many still can’t run their existing ERP systems effectively, so expecting AI to suddenly make them brilliant decision-makers is unrealistic.
That’s not to say it won’t become essential — it will — but the real benefit will come from how organisations use the intelligence, not from the technology on its own. You have to start with the business problem: What decisions need to be faster or more accurate? Otherwise you just add another layer of complexity.
Leadership and talent
JP: You talked about the supply-chain profession itself — that strategic capability has thinned out over time.
Tim: For years supply chain was seen mainly as a cost to optimise, not a source of strategic advantage. During the pandemic it moved centre-stage, but that focus has faded again. We need to rebuild the pipeline of strategic thinkers — people who understand both the operational detail and the bigger picture.
Resilient organisations invest in their people’s ability to think ahead. They practise decision-making, they model scenarios, they prepare options. That way, when disruption hits, they’re ready to act instead of just react.
Closing reflection
Volatility, in Tim Richardson’s view, is no longer an external event to endure but a permanent feature of business life. The answer lies not in chasing every new technology or predicting the next shock, but in designing supply chains — and developing leaders — capable of absorbing change as it happens. Adaptability, clarity, and disciplined preparation are the quiet strengths that will separate those who cope from those who lead.